It’s pouring rain in Long Beach. They’ve had 2 days of it. Day one was a hurricane. While I’m not really on vacation (I’m down here looking for a few work-related things, and trying to scare up contracts), I was also looking forward to sun. However, this has reminded me of a couple of basic rules about emergency planning that might be worthwhile to go over.
1) Don’t assume that it won’t happen.
This should be obvious, but it often isn’t. Long Beach doesn’t get storms like this, apparently, and they were caught unprepared- Here’s a little anecdote from the news: the city put grates over most of the storm drains to lower the debris being washed into the bay during peak flow storms. This is a great idea, except that the debris has to go somewhere, and it caused massive road flooding. Thankfully, there were no fatalities. How would they have done it better? Something like a grate overflow, sieve, or at least a staggered array of progressively smaller screens for debris. Yes, the last one would require infrastructure investment, but it would also clean out the water before it hits the spillway, and generate jobs for locals (this could work like the Montreal collector system.
2)You can be certain that if something does happen, people will NOT know the plan.
This one doesn’t apply to the last 48 hours here, but It applies generally. Tourists in Tsunami areas didn’t (and still don’t) know about some of the survival and escape rules for this type of event. They don’t know, because it doesn’t usually affect them, and it may be counterintuitive. This is why we have fire marshals, emergency response personnel, wardens, etc.. In a corporate setting this also applies. Don’t expect your staff to be briefed on the latest in DRP or BCP policies. In the bad old days, every town had an air-raid/hurricane siren. Now we have mobile phones, twitter and those sirens are old and unused…. however, we still have the same people who operate them. Here’s an idea: Most telcos can carry sidechannel info on mobile phones- IE: they can broadcast messages to phone users via special text channels. Why not use that to warn of hurricanes, disasters, or even missing person events? There would have to be a policy about when and how, but it’s usable, since it doesn’t require access to the actual phone system, it just requires a few bits of text.
3) When something serious happens, some people won’t have heard the alarm. Or they’ll ignore it.
This ties in with 2. I was driving when the hurricane warning was put into effect. By that point, I was driving down PCH in 6-8 inches of water (they don’t speak metric here!) I had no idea. This just looked like a typical Montreal spring storm, or the sort of thing that happens in Ireland in February. The text messaging system mentioned in 2 also applies here- It can’t be relied upon as a primary system, that’s what air-raid sirens, TV, Radio and the internet are for. Hell, you could even use pre-arranged calls if it was feasible (It is for corporate environments, but not so much for cities).
4) You can build in physical resilience, but the best mitigation and resilience comes from Local environment and society. The Locals are ALWAYS the best hope.
This one is about Haiti, Sri Lanka, and any other developing country that has been hit by a disaster. This is also my little soapbox for the moment. The disaster is ALWAYS worse when there are already civil issues. It is also compounded exponentially by the level of poverty experienced by the average person in the area. Poor areas get hit hard. Poor areas with bad government get hit harder, and poor, lawless areas are usually the worst. This much is pretty evident, but it’s also the first thing that is overlooked in relief work. The methods that we use to assist people in need in the western world need to be revisited for this reason alone. It’s good to help. It’s better to help before something serious happens, and that means fixing things before the disaster- Infrastructure, government, security, food and water are all missing in the areas that are most often hit by quakes, storms, floods and worse. Instead of fixing that we do the dramatic thing, and send in Marines, DART teams, and all manner of people who can only help for a few weeks. The United States experienced this with New Orleans, and (unsurprisingly), the unmitigated disaster that occurred there is still being cleaned up 4 years after the fact. The reason wasn’t FEMA, or Blackwater, or any specific group, it was that New Orleans was already one of the poorest places in the US, and didn’t have the social system to support an emergency like this. When your food is imported, the water is only drinkable because it’s filtered, and your Laws and Enforcers are underpaid, poorly written, and “flexible” don’t expect a fast recovery. We’re seeing the same thing in Haiti, only 1000 times worse. The reasons are the same, though.
5) You can plan and prepare for the 80% of things that will go wrong, so why don’t you?
This is the 80/20 rule. Randy Marchany put this very succinctly during one of those SANS classes that I was sitting through last year- the 20% is the sort of stuff that anyone can come up with; armed psychoes, severe earthquakes, and the sorts of things that are just unexpected and, frankly, unlikely. The other 80 is stuff we know is there. Some of it we choose to ignore, some of it we’re unaware of. As far as I know, the city of Vancouver doesn’t have a plan for the time when the shelf that they are sitting on in the pacific sinks into the ocean. They do, however, have a strict policy about explosions, digging and offshore geological work that should keep the area that could be affected stable. That’s good. That covers the 80% basically. The 80% is why fire departments in Montreal have trained Ambulance techs- they’re just as likely to arrive on scene first as the ambulance or police, so they can administer all of the first aid and basic paramedecine. This has saved lives in the past, and will keep saving lives until the policy changes. The 20% (in this case) is that the trucks all get stuck in traffic (very low likelihood when more than one truck has rolled out) and nobody arrives in the first 5 minutes. Another way of looking at this was espoused by the as yet unknown (but really good) writer, Robert Eringer: “ If you are concerned about taking risks, consult an actuary: Odds are, you’ll survive. Not forever, but for now you’re good. So be bold (assuming gain outweighs risk).”